Thursday, February 7, 2013

Early Odds to Win 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII (48)

Super Bowl 47 is in the books, and if you can't tell by the generic Super Bowl 48 logo, we're moving on to next year's game already.

The early odds to win 2014 Super Bowl XLVIII (48), as we'll annoyingly refer to it, are out, and per usual with these future bets, value is hard to find.

Full Super Bowl 48 odds are as follows:

Denver Broncos 7/1 
San Francisco 49ers 7/1 
New England Patriots 15/2 
Green Bay Packers 10/1 
Seattle Seahawks 12/1 
Baltimore Ravens 14/1 
Houston Texans 14/1 
Atlanta Falcons 16/1 
New Orleans Saints 16/1 
Pittsburgh Steelers 18/1 
Chicago Bears 20/1 
New York Giants 20/1 
Dallas Cowboys 25/1 
Washington Redskins 30/1 
Indianapolis Colts 33/1 
Cincinnati Bengals 35/1 
San Diego Chargers 35/1 
Detroit Lions 40/1 
Minnesota Vikings 40/1 
New York Jets 40/1 
Philadelphia Eagles 40/1 
Carolina Panthers 50/1 
Kansas City Chiefs 50/1 
Miami Dolphins 50/1 
St. Louis Rams 50/1 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60/1 
Arizona Cardinals 66/1 
Cleveland Browns 66/1 
Tennessee Titans 75/1 
Buffalo Bills 100/1 
Oakland Raiders 100/1 
Jacksonville Jaguars 150/1 

If value is what you're after, your best bets at this point in the year are to throw money at the Bills, Raiders and Jaguars and hope that one of them has a big offseason and magic happens. Not saying that's a good strategy, but in terms of value, that's as good as you're going to get.

One team with long odds that legitimately might have a chance, certainly at the postseason, is the Buccaneers at 60/1, and there are several teams above them that we don't think necessarily believe will have a better chance than Tampa.

Otherwise, slight value lies in the teams that missed out on this years postseason, three of which are recent Super Bowl champs: The Saints (16/1), Steelers (18/1), Giants (20/1) and Bears (20/1) are four teams that figure to have a great chance at the playoffs in 2013, and really that's what we're looking for. Just make the dance, because as we've seen in recent Super Bowl history, who knows what can happen from there--especially a year in advance.

For the fun of it, allow us to blindly pick our 12 playoff teams and anoint a new Super Bowl champion without the benefit of the offseason:

2013 NFC Playoff Teams: 49ers, Packers, Saints, Cowboys, Giants, Bears

That would mean three new playoff teams in the NFC, the Saints, Cowboys and Bears. We're calling a down year for the Falcons, who were not a fantastic team this season, and leaving out the Seahawks and Redskins, betting on sophomore slumps for both rookies quarterbacks.

2013 AFC Playoff Teams: Patriots, Broncos, Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Chargers

This would drop the Colts and Bengals in favor of the Steelers and Chargers, who, like the Cowboys, we can't seem to quit on. Phil Rivers and Tony Romo suck us in every year.

2013 NFC Championship: 49ers over Saints 

We know defending Super Bowl participants haven't had much luck, but the 49ers aren't built to be one of those teams. They have one free agent amongst regular starters, Dashon Goldson, who figures to be retained, and are so frightening on offense that we don't see them getting stopped. The Saints, meanwhile, will be on a vengeance tour in 2013, and we think they'll ride that to the doorstep of the Super Bowl.

As for the other playoff teams, it's a transition year for the Packers, who will have a different looking team next year, and the Cowboys are just happy to be there. The Bears will Cutler themselves out, and we can't exactly say how the Giants will be eliminated from the playoffs once they get there. Doesn't seem possible, does it?

2013 AFC Championship: Broncos over Patriots

Going with the frontrunners. The AFC is so top-heavy its ridiculous. Next year, we'll get the AFC championship we thought we were getting this year.

We think the Ravens will be back in the playoffs, but the magic will run out early. The Texans won't pose much of a threat again, nor will the happy-to-be-there Chargers, but the Steelers are the Giants of the AFC. We'll predict them getting eliminated, but we're not sure how that'll play out.

2014 Super Bowl XLVIII (48): Broncos over 49ers

How unlikely is it that both the favorites from the NFC and AFC actually end up in the Super Bowl? Extremely. But they are favorites for a reason, and we expect both to have a better chance than the others in their respective conferences, as the odds indicate. Which is why we wouldn't bet either--just no value in 7/1.

We get a weird Buffalo Bills vibe from the 49ers, losers of last year's NFC championship and this year's Super Bowl. We're predicting another painful Super Bowl loss for them, as their hashtag #questforsix campaign is recycled for the 20th year in-a-row.

There you have it. Just gut feelings as of early February on who's in and who's out. But again, we have a long, long way to go. This will likely look a lot different when we break it down before the start of the 2013 regular season, and will look completely different when the actual chips begin to fall in late December. But for now, that's what we're feeling.

So to recap: bet the opposite of the above results.