Friday, February 1, 2013

2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47) Prop Bet: President Barack Obama's Pick

Leading up to the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47) between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, we'll take a look at Super Bowl proposition betting and all the fun, silly prop bets that surround Super Bowl 47 (XLVII). That includes proposition wagers on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show (Beyonce), Super Bowl National Anthem (Alicia Keys), Super Bowl Gatorade shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right and follow us on twitter for prop betting updates @stocklemonblog!   

Politicians are used to propositions, but come Super Bowl week, the President become the subject of one.  

Recession? Gun control? Fiscal cliff? What do any of these hot topics matter when we can talk FOOTBALL!?

Once again the pregame festivities on Super Sunday will include a brief interview with the President, who will be asked--along with numerous boring social and economical questions--to pick a winner in the championship game of his country's most popular sport. 

To the prop: 

Who will Barack Obama pick to win the game? 
Must publicly announce pick before kickoff. Any wager placed after this becomes public knowledge will be graded as No Action.
Baltimore Ravens -180 
San Francisco 49ers +140 

Last year, not coincidentally an election year, our fearless leader took the bipartisan approach and didn't pick a winner between the Giants and Patriots, as we explained he wouldn't. There is a good chance he doesn't tab a winner again this year, so as not to ruffle the feathers of any citizens of his nation. We're surprised that such an option isn't offered in this prop, as all money is returned if he doesn't make a pick. 

But with approval ratings meaning virtually nothing to him anymore with no more reelection bids in his future, might as well burn down some bridges, be it the Golden Gate or the Francis Scott Key. So this year, this prop bet may be used as more than just a way to tie up your prop betting funds to prevent you from incurring any other Super Bowl losses--and we're going to be prepared with a pick should he make one. 

Usually when the President is in the bag for someone, we would already know it by now. In 2009, fresh off of his nomination, Obama backed the Steelers over the Cardinals, likely a campaign promise to secure some key electoral college votes in Pennsylvania. 

The following year, Obama predicted a win for Manning and the Colts, though he said he was "rooting" for Saints, who played in a city still reeling from the George Bush-induced hurricane a few years prior.

In 2010, the campaign trail had already begun, and therefore he didn't make a commitment to either the Packers or the Steelers. Nothing turns a blue state red quicker than picking against the team in a blue-collar town. 

If Barry O does make a pick, we're with the favorite. It would take the President less than an hour to drive from the White House to Baltimore's M&T Bank Stadium--assuming no traffic, which is usually not a problem for a presidential barricade. You have to figure that the proximity of the Ravens will compel the President to take the region's AFC team.  

There are a few things working against this theory though. First and foremost, as we saw with his Colts pick, just because he's rooting for a team (in that case, the Katrina Saints), doesn't mean he thinks they'll win. He could very well root for his quasi-hometown team, but still think the 49ers are the better team.

And just to get this out of the way, our first black President might play the race card. We have had only one black quarterback win the Super Bowl, and Colin Kaepernick seems as good as any to join Doug Williams in that fraternity. This could be a non-factor, and certainly it's not something we expect him to cite as a reason for picking the 49ers, we could see a subconscious siding with his own people--on the third day of Black History Month, no less.

More than the race card though, we could see Obama play the favorite card. In the two Super Bowl's he's picked, he's taken 7-point favorite Steelers and the five-point favorite Colts. With so little time available to follow such things, Obama is as square a better as squares come, and we could see him siding with the team Vegas, and a majority of analysts, have predicted to win, the 4-point favorite 49ers. 

Finally, in Obama's prime football watching years (early-to-late 20s), the 49ers dominated the NFL. They won four Super Bowls during this time in the '80s, a time when Obama's team, the Bears, were also an elite team and had some battles with the fellow NFC powerhouse in San Francisco. Square betters like the team's they've seen get the job done before, and people of America, our President is a square.

Now that we've written that all down, and rather than go back into the body of this post and find the part where we predicted Barry would give the edge to B-More (we wouldn't want to accidentally proofread one of these ramblings in the process), we're going to change gears and predict that Obama likes the 49ers to win this one. 

He might go so far as to publicly side with his neighbors to the northeast in Bodymore, Murderland, but we've talked ourselves into him predicting a 49ers win. When it's such a toss up anyway, why swallow the vig? Take the +140 and hope for the best.