Sunday, February 5, 2012
The New York Giants once again topped the New England Patriots, and with that the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) is over--but our extensive coverage of the Super Bowl prop betting scene is not. Complete results of the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) Prop bets that we analyzed can be found below.
The Coin Toss/Flip
Our Picks: We rode the NFC's streak of 14-straight Super Bowl coin toss victories, banking on the Giants inevitable tails call to be the winner.
Result: It was not. The Giants tails call was a loser, giving Heads and the Patriots a victory in the coin toss. Remarkably, Heads and Tails are once again tied a 23 wins a piece in 46 Super Bowls. We lose all three of our bets here.
The Kelly Clarkson National Anthem
Our Picks: Despite Youtube evidence to the contrary, we went with our gut and took the over at 1 minute, 34 seconds. Other books had it set at 1 minute, 35 seconds. Significant? Uh, yeah.
Result: In the closest National Anthem in recent history, she split the two most popular posted figures, going 94.5 seconds. Of course, she didn't show her midriff or omit any words, both sucker props that only offered a "yes" bet. We won this one. We did, however, guess that she might wear some NFL apparel (+200), going against our original lean and chalk laying choice of anything else (-300), which won the bet.
The Gatorade Shower/Bath/Dump
Our Pick: These teams have a history of clear/water dumps (if anything), so we love the value at 2/1 clear.
Result: Purple makes a random appearance, completely out of character for the Giants. Jon Gruden received a Purple Shower in 2003 after his Buccaneers defeated the Raiders in Super Bowl 37, but since then it's been used so sparingly (er, not at all) that it has been relegated to the 'any other color' category. After the orange shower on Mike McCarthy last season, this marks the second consecutive season that the winning color hasn't even been a listed option for prop bettors. And unlike last year, you couldn't actually bet on "any other color," making this a push. Silly Vegas, losing money on that gaffe.
The Madonna Halftime Show
Our Picks: Quite a few bets here, mostly just blind guesses on our part. We had Madonna coming out blonde (-400), wearing fishnet stockings (-120), not wearing an NFL jersey shirt (-400), not wearing a hat (-150) and using a handheld microphone (+150)
Results: The first three went as predicted (mostly at terrible juice, though), but the last two did not. She began the thing with a hat/Egyptian crown of some sort (+110) and, so that she could properly strike a vogue pose, used a headset to start (-200), though she went handheld for the rest of the show. Not much that we could have done on these, except either guess differently or not bet them at all. We're content with hitting 3/5, even though we lost money in the process.
The Super Bowl MVP
Our pick: Tom Brady, only because we saw the Patriots winning this game. This, of course, came with our normal caveat that we like the QB to win MVP in any case, so if you thought the Giants would win, pick Eli Manning.
Result: The Giants won, and so it goes, Eli Manning earns MVP No. 2. Despite 10 catches for 100+ yards for Nicks, or two sacks and an all around good game from Justin Tuck, it's all about the quarterback these days. Don't get cute and bet position players, just not fiscally sound anymore. You know, as opposed to the normally fiscally sound hobby of betting on Super Bowl prop bets.
The Super Bowl MVP Thank You
Our Pick: Due to the nature of the questioning posed by the interviewee at these things, we bet that the MVP would not thank anyone directly--except for the interviewee.
Result: At 11/4 odds, this was our best win of the Super Bowl, and it went exactly as we planned. We can't emphasize enough how rare it is to actually get a thank you out of these. Unless you have an uber-religious player winning the award (of which there are a good handful) who goes out of his way to thank God immediately, regardless of the questioning, it's not going to happen. And it didn't. Eli thanked Dan Patrick for providing keys to the new car won by the MVP, but otherwise, nothing. We are actually a little surprised the books don't use that and call it no action... we probably shouldn't have brought it up.
The Barack Obama Prediction
Our Pick: We were skeptical that he would make a prediction at all.
Result: We were right, but don't win anything for that. No action.
The Opening Kickoff Touchback
Our Pick: We guessed that Super Bowl nerves and kickers who usually only kicked it into the end zone 40 percent of the time would result in a nice win on some good plus-odds.
Result: No touchback, as the kick barely made it to about the goal line and was obviously returned. A nice +155 win on a relatively easy prop, helping us recover our losses on that disastrous coin toss result.
The New York Giants Player Props
Our Picks: We don't bet many straight up player props, because we're so focused on all the other goofy stuff that we don't have the time to properly analyze these props. And it shows. Really, we suck at these. Nevertheless, for the Giants we picked Brandon Jacobs to carry the ball more than 7 1/2 times, Antrel Rolle to have more than six tackles, and Victor Cruz's first catch to go for more than 11 1/2 yards.
Results: Jacobs had nine carries (win), Rolle three tackles (loss) and Cruz went for eight yards (loss). Not impressive. As bad as we usually are at these, we actually went 4-0 on the NFC squad last year (the Packers), but were blanked on the Steelers in the AFC (0-4). We thought we hit some decent value spots here, but it didn't work out as we'd hope, and we go 1-2 on the NFC team bets this year.
The New England Patriots Player Props
Our Picks: Again, we're not great at these. They are just a little too... orthodox. For the Patriots, we went with BenJarvus Green-Ellis to go under 47 1/2 yards, Aaron Hernandez to catch a pass of at least 18 yards, and Tom Brady to throw under 39 1/2 passes.
Results: Just like with the Giants player props, we went 1-2. Green-Ellis ran for 44 yards (win), Hernandez didn't catch a pass longer than 12 yards (loss) and Brady threw the rock 41 times (loss). While Hernandez was a big part of the offense as we predicted, his catches were a few yards shorter than we needed. Brady topped the over/under on the final drive, so unlucky there.
Streaming the Super Bowl Online
Our Pick: It's the first year that Super Bowl streaming is a legal option, and we like you nerds to take advantage of that fact. Over 1.5 million.
Result: According to NBC, 2.1 million people streamed the Super Bowl, making it the most watched live sporting event online and, more importantly, giving bettors who picked over 1.5 million people a reason to celebrate.
The Nielsen Ratings
Our Picks: We said under 117 million and 47.5 on the Nielsen Ratings, and that the Boston market (-7) would outwatch the New York market.
Result: Under it is! Like we said, we thought that this prop the chance to be the most watched event in TV history, as is typically the case around the Super Bowl. But with the public knowing that, the bookies set the bar way too high, and as we predicted, that bar was not reached. In fact, at 111.3 million, it barely topped last year's game. Curiously, we have Boston edging New York by a count of 56.7-49.7. Unless we are actually that bad at math, that comes out to an even numbered seven, which equates to a push. Yet we were credited with the win on this prop, telling us that either they have more exact numbers available, or that most of the money was on New York. Lastly, it looks like a 47.8 Nielsen Rating, which gives us a narrow defeat in that bet--unless the books have more "exact numbers" on that one as well.
The David Tyree Catch Replay
Our Pick: We went Over 1, might have been suckered into the suckiest sucker bet of the Super Bowl.
Result: Under. Sucker bet. How did we not see this coming? The play was shown immediately following the game, in comparison to Mario Manningham's sideline catch, but again, after the game. The window of opportunity during the game is so small, which is why we usually like the under on all of these props that take advantage of the public watching the pregame hype. Considering us "the public" on this one.
The Dow Jones Impact
Our Pick: With Clint Eastwood's blessing, we feel good about our bet the Dow Jones will go up on the Monday after the Super Bowl.
Result: The Dow Jones Industrial Average actually pulled a Wes Welker, dropping points. Dow went Dow(n) 17 points Monday, or .13%. Rats.
The Sexy Gisele Bundchen Prop
Our Pick: The wife of Tom Brady would be shown over 1/2 times (so, like, once).
Result: Giselle got some early camera time in the first quarter. Nice to get that out of the way. Easy win.
The Peyton Manning Sightings
Our Pick: Under. When looking back at our prop bets, we originally thought we had bet over on the basis of him being family. In fact, we did have UNDER 3 1/2, conceding that Peyton was likely to be shown, just probably not four times.
Result: NBC could not find Peyton Manning. They were looking for him, but could not find him. Archie and Peyton must have conspired to make sure that was the case. Manning was not shown at all. Not the way we expected to win this one, but we'll take it.
The Andrew Luck Mentions
Our Pick: Under 1 on the amount of times they would talk about a player that is likely to be picked first overall--by neither the Giants or Patriots--in a college draft two and a half months after this game.
Result: Easiest win of the Super Bowl. Seriously, come on with this one.
The Jim Irsay Mentions
Our Pick: We went with Under 1 on the amount of time that another team's owner would be mentioned during this Super Bowl.
Result: Second easiest win of the Super Bowl. Nervous for a half second just because they mentioned Indy as the host city, but when the game is on, the game is one. Who cares about the Colts owner and the Peyton Manning saga, it's all about watching our last three hours of actual football. We have all offseason to discuss this drama.
The Robert Kraft Sightings
Our Pick: As the owner of the Patriots (the team we predicted to win), whose wife passed away before the season (that's her initials on those Patriots jerseys), we liked Bob Kraft to be shown more than three and a half times.
Result: By the end of the third quarter--before the usual shots of the owners on the games' final drives--Kraft had already been shown five times. Kraft Mac and Cheese for all, and a winning prop bet for us.
Tom Brady's Son's Wardrobe
Our Pick: If Tom Brady's kid was shown, we liked him to be wearing a Tom Brady jersey, just like Drew Brees' kid a few years back.
Result: We feel a little less creepy now, as Brady's kid was not shown during the game, resulting in no action on this prop. We didn't win or lose money betting on a toddler's outfit, and that probably is the biggest win of the night.
We know nobody cares about this stuff, but thanks to you, the degenerate prop bet gambler, we smashed our all-time single-day traffic records, the fourth consecutive Super Bowl in which we've accomplished that feat. But this time, we really smashed them. So thanks again, and even though our content is generally abysmal during non-Super Bowl times, feel free to stop by whenever, just to be sure our site still exists.
And we'll see you back here for 2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47) prop betting action, provided the world hasn't ended by then.