Friday, February 3, 2012

2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) Prop Bet: Viewership and the Nielsen Ratings


Leading up to the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or crazy Super Bowl 46 (XLVI) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show (Madonna), the Super Bowl National Anthem (Kelly Clarkson), the Super Bowl Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right and follow us on twitter @stocklemonblog!

There's a lot working against us here, and we really aren't sure that we even like what we're about to say, but we don't think the Super Bowl will hit the numbers that are being thrown out there this year.

Yes, it's Tom Brady and the New York market and a Manning playing in Indy and a Patriots dynasty and, and, and the commercials!

We just think the numbers set by the oddsmakers are a just a bit out of reach, even for the most popular sports most popular game. Take a look at these two props below

How many average viewers will the game have?
Over 117 Million Viewers -140
Under 117 Million Viewers EVEN

What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl?
Over 47 1/2 (-120)o
Under 47 1/2 (-120)u

This prop has been automatic on the over the last few years, so you can see that Vegas is begging people to bet the Under. That's not because they think it will go over, but rather simply to even it out either way. Hell, they don't know either.

But we say this prop goes UNDER 117 million viewers, and that it has under a 47 1/2 Nielsen rating (percentage of households tuned to the game).

See the all-time top five most viewed Super Bowls in history below:

2011 Super Bowl XLV (45), 111,010 million
2010 Super Bowl XLIV (44), 106,476 million
2009 Super Bowl XLIII (43), 98,732 million
2008 Super Bowl XLII (42), 97,448 million
1995 Super Bowl XXX (30), 94,076 million

OK, there are a lot of reasons to bet over, judging by the latest trends. The last four Super Bowls have been the most watched programs in history, by average million viewers. The NFL is only gaining popularity every year, and the Super Bowl has gained worldwide appeal, even from non-sports fans.

However, has that much really changed since 2008, when these teams averaged 97 mil? Will 20 more million people tune in to see the same game just four years later? We say no, and that while we'll surpass last year's 111 million, we won't get to 117.

What's more, we think there is no way we hit 47 1/2 on the Nielsen charts. The last two games have been in the 46 range, and we just think we're reaching a little too high with this one, despite good TV markets.

The last few Super Bowls have been close games and made for tremendous television. We think that ends to some extent this year, and that will reflect in the TV ratings.

We do, on the other hand, like the over in this year's Super Bowl to be streamed by more than 1.5 million people--which could also contribute to an UNDER in the Nielsen department.

Lastly, there's this gem:

Which region will have the higher local TV Rating?
Boston -7 (-120)
New York +7 (-120)

We're all over Boston here, as the market is better for sporting events due to a passionate local fan base. There are too many more people in New York who could care less about the Super Bowl, we like Boston by double-digits, just as was the case in the 2008 Super Bowl XLII (42) that saw Boston earn a market share of 81 compared to New York's 67. Pursuit of perfection aside, Bostonians should help their city win this one handidly.

We're trying to become the most viewed web page in Super Bowl prop betting history, and let's just say that we'll be taking the under in that bet as well. Help our cause by checking back throughout Super Bowl weekend for more prop bet analysis!