Saturday, February 4, 2012

2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) Prop Bet: The New England Patriots Player Props


Leading up to the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or ridiculous Super Bowl 46 (XLVI) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show (Madonna), the Super Bowl National Anthem (Kelly Clarkson), the Super Bowl Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right and follow us on twitter @stocklemonblog!

We've covered just about everything there is to cover in the prop betting world on 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46), but we feel like we're forgetting something...

Oh, right! The actual game!

While the Patriots and Giants have taken a backseat here at Stock Lemon to Gatorade and Madonna and the Dog Jones Industrial Average, the Super Bowl hype week is over, and the weekend is the time to really focus on the game.

With that, we'll unveil a few prop bets we like pertaining to the New England Patriots (followed by the New York Giants later today).

Total Rushing Yards – BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE)
Over 47 1/2 (-125)
Under 47 1/2 (-105)

In our favorite Patriots Player prop of the Super Bowl, we like the law firm to go under 47 1/2 rushing yards. Despite rushing for 68 yards in the most recent game, the ever important AFC Championship, we don't see Green-Ellis topping 47 1/2. In fact, in the seven previous games, he was well below that mark. We like Tom Brady to put up some gaudy numbers, and the running game will be put on the shelf for New England, as is often the case.

Longest Reception - Aaron Hernandez (NE)
Over 18 1/2 (-125)
Under 18 1/2 (-105)

Aaron Hernandez, who could receive a big piece of the Patriots tight end pie with a hobbled Rob Gronkowski not at 100 percent, has had a reception of at least 19 yards in five of the last seven games, and we suspect he'll have one again on Sunday as the most active tight end on the field.

Total Passing Attempts - Tom Brady (NE)
Over 39 1/2 (-115)
Under 39 1/2 (-115)

See, this is way too high. In nine of his last 10, Brady has thrown under 39 1/2 passes. Why the number is set here is more about public perception than it is about probability. We'll take the Under all day on this one.

And so, after several ridiculous prop bets on coin flips and anthems and TV ratings and attire, we have a whopping three on the New England Patriots. The problem with these is that the lines are pretty well set, and it's harder to find value in the player props than it is in the goofy, off-the-wall Super Bowl props that we love betting so much.

We'll throw some Giants props your way later today, but once again, we're not promising a whole lot of player props. It's for the best, as we have more important things to worry about than this silly football game, such as the number of times Peyton Manning is shown on the broadcast.

We can't believe the Super Bowl prop betting fun is almost through here at Stock Lemon, but be sure to bookmark us so that you know where to come this time next year, rather than getting directed here by Google on the Saturday before the Super Bowl searching for "big boobs."