Leading up to the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, we'll be taking a look at Super Bowl proposition betting, or more specifically, the fun or crazy Super Bowl 46 (XLVI) prop bets that you hear so much about. That includes props on the Super Bowl coin toss, Super Bowl halftime show, Super Bowl National Anthem, Super Bowl Gatorade Shower dump and much more. Follow along on the Super Bowl sidebar to the right and follow us on twitter @stocklemonblog!They've both won it. Tom Brady twice. Eli Manning once. The award usually goes to a quarterback. So, what exactly are we risking with this one? Before we give you our analysis of this popular prop bet, check out the complete 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) MVP odds below:
Tom Brady... 13/10
Eli Manning... 9/4
Rob Gronkowski... 15/2
Hakeem Nicks... 14/1
Victor Cruz... 14/1
Aaron Hernandez... 15/1
Wes Welker... 15/1
Ahmad Bradshaw... 22/1
BenJarvus Green-Ellis... 22/1
Jason Pierre-Paul... 25/1
Deion Branch... 30/1
Brandon Jacobs... 35/1
Mario Manningham... 35/1
Danny Woodhead... 50/1
Antrel Rolle... 75/1
Justin Tuck... 75/1
Chad Ochocinco... 100/1
Devin McCourty... 100/1
Jake Ballard... 100/1
Jerod Mayo... 100/1
Kyle Arrington... 100/1
Lawrence Tynes... 100/1
Osi Umenyiora... 100/1
Stephen Gostkowski... 100/1
Vince Wilfork... 100/1
Field... 20/1
With the NFL steadily becoming a pass-happy league and quarterbacks serving as the main attraction in the marketing machine, it's no surprise that the QB has claimed 24 of the 45 Super Bowl MVPs (53%), including four of the last five. And, like last year, we don't expect that to change in 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46).
Tom Terrific is vying to tie Joe Montana for the most Super Bowl MVPs in history, while Eli is looking to join the likes of Brady, Montana and Bradshaw as the game's multiple award winners. Both teams have been handed three Super Bowl MVPs, two of which have gone to quarterbacks (Brady conceded one to a player he was throwing to, Deion Branch, while Phil Simms and Eli won the award for the Giants and running back Otis Anderson claims their only non-QB MVP).
The strategy for us here is simple: don't get too crazy. We know what the odds are that a quarterback wins the MVP, and this is a prop bet where we like to play it relatively conservative. Sure, it'd be great to tell your buddies you nailed the Antrel Rolle bet at 75/1 odds when he's returning a pick for a touchdown, but the likelihood of that occurring is far worse than even 75/1 odds (until the Stock Lemon jinx has its way with this Super Bowl!). Dexter Jackson, he is not.
Last year we copped out and told you to bet either Ben Roethlisberger or Aaron Rodgers, depending on whether you thought the Steelers or Packers would come out victorious. The strategy is the same for us this year, but we're going to take it one step further. Sticking with our original lean of the Patriots, we're going for the most square, boring pick of them all, Tom Brady for the 2012 Super Bowl XLVI (46) MVP at 13/10 odds.
The odds are, obviously, terrible, as they are for Eli (9/4), but it's the right play. That is, if you think the Patriots will win. If you like the Giants, go with Eli, just as we instructed last year.
If we were to look outside the quarterback position, we do see some value in the pass-catchers, particularly the guys who live in the slot--Wes Welker and Victor Cruz, both at 15/1. So even if we were to get crazy, we're not getting too crazy.
As we've said in the past, many of these guys are thrown on the board because they have name value, but the bookies know that they have an extremely limited chance of being named MVP (1000/1 odds might even be a stretch for a few of the names on this year's list). They then cover the rest of the scraps with the field bet at 20/1, which might be the biggest ripoff of them all.
Much like many of the annual Super Bowl prop bets, they are all about getting public money on crazy and improbable bets, because betting on the Super Bowl is like going to Vegas--it's an event that only occurs every so often, and people accept the fact that they're likely to lose money in exchange for the excitement and potential to strike it big (or just have fun and get really drunk).
Could Vince Wilfork (100/1) hilariously intercept another pass? Yes. Could Lawrence Tynes (100/1) kick eight field goals, including the game winner? Sure. Could Chad Ochocinco (100/1) finally have a big game for the Patriots on the biggest stage of them all? Well, no, but you get the point.
Anything is possible, obviously, but the safe bet on the Super Bowl MVP prop bet is the correct bet.
