
Our Free NFL Picks came through with a 3-1 day on Sunday, bumping them to 14-7-1 (67%) on the 2011 season. More impressive, since a rough first week, the picks are 12-3-1, an impressive 80%.
Still, we can't help but feel once again that we are leaving some plays on the board. Selectivity is the key to our success, but more often than not we are cutting winners from our final card in favor of being selective.
This week's non-plays included the Raiders (last second scratch) and those damn Vikings, who we've been sticking with all year and finally jumped off the wagon this week under the premise that we don't like betting on bad teams. That simple. With the benefit of hindsight, it is easy to second guess, but we really need to learn to stick with our gut on certain plays.
Either way, we'll take a 67% start through 22 plays in five weeks, but if/when we hit a rough patch later in the year, we'll be kicking ourselves for passing on what appear to be gimmies after the fact.
By comparison, last year at this time we had played 34 games, winning as many (22) as we've played in all of 2011, for a 67% clip. That, however, included a hot 11-2 start, meaning a Week 3-5 stretch of just 11-10 (compared to 8-2 in that stretch this year).
Covers on the Chargers, Steelers and Bengals gave us our fourth straight non-losing week (hooray?), but the Eagles didn't figure it out in Buffalo as we thought they would. As always, our weekly breakdown follows.
Be sure to come back next week to see first hand which obvious plays we pass on.
2011 Free NFL PicksWeek 1: 2-4
Week 2: 4-1-1
Week 3: 4-0
Week 4: 1-1
Week 5: 3-1
Total: 14-7-1... 67%