Welcome Back to College Football (55% in 2010)

The 2011 football season is finally upon us, beginning with a healthy slate of Thursday games in college football, which of course means the return of our Free NCAA Football Picks.

We have, so far, just one pick for Thursday night's opening action, and we assure you, this is not a basketball pick, despite the teams involved.

Syracuse -6 1/2 over Wake Forest

We could potentially add to that for Thursday and even Friday, but most assuredly, there will be several picks for the opening Saturday of the college football season. Stay with us all year for our absolute, 100% Free NCAA Football Picks every week.

Last year, our Free NCAA Football Picks finished at 55%, supported by a very strong 90% bowl season. In the beginning, though, there were plenty of ups and downs, as we endured three consecutive losing weeks early in the season.

We often struggle to start the college schedule, due to some of the wild double-digit spreads caused by unbalanced non-conference games. Conversely, our Free NFL Picks usually start off much better in the beginning of the season and then go about .500 the rest of the way.

We'll try to change both of those blemishes, of course, but consider this a disclaimer if you are tailing our picks (like you need any more of a disclaimer while following free picks from a sketchy blogspot site). All that said, our Free Picks have been pretty successful, with a 55% college season accompanying a 60% year in the NFL. Last year's results are below, for posterity's sake.

2010 Free NCAA Football Picks
Week 1: 5-4-1
Week 2: 8-4
Week 3: 3-6
Week 4: 4-7
Week 5: 3-6
Week 6: 5-2
Week 7: 5-3
Week 8: 5-3
Week 9: 5-0
Week 10: 3-3
Week 11: 1-7
Week 12: 2-2
Week 13: 4-3
Week 14: 2-2
Bowls: 9-1
Overall: 64-53-1... 55%

So... Who Wants to Bet on the Lingerie Football League?

It's back to football alright, just maybe not exactly what you had in mind.

The Lingerie Football League, which is surprisingly well organized and put together, kicks off today, and wouldn't you know it, you can actually bet on the thing.

Here are the odds to win Lingerie Bowl IX in Las Vegas on Super Bowl Sunday, February 5, 2012:

Los Angeles Temptation... 6/5
Philadelphia Passion... 3/2
Chicago Bliss... 4/1
Orlando Fantasy... 6/1
Tampa Bay Breeze... 8/1
Seattle Mist... 10/1
Baltimore Charm... 12/1
Green Bay Chill... 18/1
Minnesota Valkyrie... 20/1
Cleveland Crush... 20/1
Las Vegas Sin... 30/1
Toronto Triumph... 30/1

What's that you say? Can't wait until February to get a payoff on your Lingerie Football League bet? Don't worry, you can bet on all the games leading up to the infamous Lingerie Bowl, beginning with tonight's contest between the Green Bay Chill and Minnesota Valkyrie. We like the Chill at -2 1/2.

We'll check back in on these odds as we near Super Bowl XLVI (46), and of course, Lingerie Bowl IX (9). That is, if we don't get hooked and start betting on Lingerie Football every week.

With less than two weeks until the NFL kickoff and less than a week until the college football slate is underway, we'll try to save our football betting bankroll for just a little while longer.

2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Tight Ends (and Defenses and Kickers)

We've given you our 2011 fantasy football rankings for quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers, and if you haven't done so already, take a look at those before you proceed.

Go ahead, we'll wait.

OK, now that you've studied up on our previous rankings, your priorities are in order. We're of the opinion that you want to load up on the running backs and wide receivers throughout your draft, and that you should make sure to grab a top-tier quarterback and be done with that.

The latter is how we also feel about tight ends. Get a good one early, and don't even bother with a backup. The waiver wire will eventually offer plenty of pieces for you to plug in.

As for kickers and defenses, don't even bother worrying about either until the last two rounds. The big rallying cry from top fantasy football experts is to never draft a kicker before the last round, and we feel the same about defenses. We feel like the second-to-last-round is a perfect spot for your kicker. This way, you get one of your top-rated kickers before everybody else in the last round follows the advice of the so-called experts.

Defenses, meanwhile, are an equal crapshoot. Just pick one up in the last round and watch the waiver wire during the season, where a top 10 defense is sure to reside at some point early on.

The only rankings we'll provide here are our tight ends:

Tier 1

1. Antonio Gates

2. Jason Witten

3. Dallas Clark

4. Jermichael Finley

5. Vernon Davis

That's all we'll even bother to show you. Pick up one of these guys in the fourth or fifth round and be done with it. Kickers and defenses we'll trust you to figure out on your own.

Not a fan of fantasy football? (What's wrong with you?) Don't worry, we'll be back to betting on games as soon as they matter--starting with a pick in the Packers-Saints game season-opener on Sept. 8.

2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receivers

The upcoming weekend is a big one in the world of fantasy football, coinciding with the third and most telling week of preseason action. We've knocked out our Quarterback and Running back rankings, and we're going to help you get ready for the weekend with our third installment of fantasy football position rankings, this time focusing on the wide receivers.

Tier 1
1. Andre Johnson
2. Roddy White
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Hakeem Nicks
5. Larry Fitzgerald
6. Greg Jennings
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Mike Wallace

Tier 2
9. Vincent Jackson
10. DeSean Jackson
11. Dwayne Bowe
12. Dez Bryant
13. Kenny Britt
14. Miles Austin
15. Santonio Holmes
16. Marques Colston
17. Brandon Marshall
18. Brandon Lloyd
19. Steve Johnson

Tier 3
20. Percy Harvin
21. Anquan Boldin
22. Wes Welker
23. Mike Williams (TB)
24. Jeremy Maclin
25. Mario Manningham

26. Chad Ochocinco

27. Sidney Rice

Tier 4

28. Santana Moss

29. Pierre Garcon

30. Austin Collie

31. Mike Sims-Walker

32. Mike Thomas

33. Steve Smith (CAR)

34. A.J. Green

35. Michael Crabtree

36. Robert Meachem

37. Julio Jones

38. Braylon Edwards

Tier 5

39. Malcolm Floyd

40. Roy Williams

41. Johnny Knox

42. Lee Evans

43. Jordy Nelson

44. James Jones

45. Jerome Simpson

46. Jacoby Ford

47. Plaxico Burress

48. Hines Ward

49. Davone Bess

50. Danny Amendola

51. Deion Branch

52. Derrick Mason

53. Donald Driver

54. Lance Moore

55. Steve Breaston

56. Emmanuel Sanders

57. Kevin Walter

58. Nate Burleson

59. Steve Smith (PHI)

60. Mike Williams (SEA)

61. Andre Roberts

62. Arrelious Benn

63. Jason Hill

64. Eddie Royal

For the wide receiver group, our tiers are expanded as there is only a slight difference between many of the players in the talent pool. The lesson here, as always, is get at least one guy in the top tier. If you are yourself with a top tier quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end in the first four or five rounds, you'll be in good shape no matter how the rest of the draft shakes out.

2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Backs

Ahhh running backs. The lifeblood of fantasy football. Or at least, they used to be, back when all 32 teams had a feature running back to take all the carries and rack up a ton of points. Not so anymore, which is where we come in to sort through them all and make sure you get the right ones.

Continuing our 2011 Fantasy Football series after unveiling our Quarterback Rankings last week, it's time to take a look at the top running backs in the the NFL--for fantasy purposes, anyway.

Tier 1
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Chris Johnson
3. Jamaal Charles
4. Arian Foster
5. Ray Rice

Tier 2
6. LeSean McCoy
7. Maurice Jones-Drew
8. Rashard Mendenhall
9. Darren McFadden
10. Frank Gore

Tier 3
11. Matt Forte
12. Steven Jackson
13. Michael Turner
14. Ahmad Bradshaw
15. Peyton Hillis

Tier 4
16. LeGarrette Blount
17. Knowshon Moreno
18. Jahvid Best
19. Shonn Greene

Tier 5
20. Mark Ingram
21. Daniel Thomas
22. Ryan Mathews
23. Felix Jones
24. DeAngelo Williams
25. Cedric Benson
26. Ryan Grant
27. Marshawn Lynch
28. Fred Jackson
29. BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Tier 6
30. Jonathan Stewart
31. Tim Hightower
32. Beanie Wells
33. Ryan Williams
34. Mike Tolbert
35. Michael Bush
36. Pierre Thomas
37. Joseph Addai
39. C.J. Spiller
40. James Starks

Tier 7
41. Brandon Jacobs
42. Reggie Bush
43. Danny Woodhead
44. Ryan Torain
45. Roy Helu
46. Darren Sproles
47. Rashad Jennings

Tier 8
48. LaDainian Tomlinson
49. Ronnie Brown
50. Willis McGahee
51. Thomas Jones
52. Ricky Williams

Tier 9
53. Montario Hardesty
54. Jerome Harrison
55. Javon Ringer
56. Bernard Scott
58. DeMarco Murray
59. Jason Snelling
60. Ben Tate
61. Marion Barber
62. Brandon Jackson
63. Delone Carter
64. Shane Vereen
65. Justin Forsett
66. Donald Brown
67. Toby Gerhart
68. Anthony Dixon
69. Cadillac Williams

The Running Back position, as you can see, has turned into one big clusterfudge in the fantasy football world. Just as we advised that you pick up a Tier 1 quarterback, that would be ideal with running backs as well, but definitely have at least one of the top 15 guys or you really don't know what you're getting.

The shortage of quality backs means, quite simply, just pick as many of them as you can. That 20-40 group can almost be flipped around without anybody putting up too much of a fight, which is quite the predicament for fantasy players looking to get a stud No. 2 back. So our advice is to stockpile the position and hope that your Tim Hightowers separate from your Ryan Torains.

At the top, there are more enticing options than Adrian Peterson, but old reliable gets our No. 1 nod for his consistency. Chris Johnson's holdout is a little fearful, as is Arian Foster without bruising fullback Vonta Leach, so we'd stick with Peterson as the first overall pick.

With QBs and RBs behind us, it's time to take a look at another seemingly convoluted position--wide receivers. Check back later this week for our WR rankings.

2011 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterbacks

We are finally back to football after last night's NFL action (albeit preseason) and we are celebrating by rolling out the first installment of our 2011 Fantasy Football rankings. In our first position ratings, we are naturally taking a look at quarterbacks.

While the position is often referred to as the most important position in football, it may just be the most important in fantasy football as well. Running backs and wide receivers will still rule the early rounds, but it's important to get a good QB early (we recommend making sure to get a guy in the first tier).

Without further ado, our 2011 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings:

Tier 1
1. Michael Vick
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Drew Brees
4. Phillip Rivers
5. Tom Brady
6. Peyton Manning
7. Tony Romo

Tier 2
8. Matt Schaub
9. Matt Ryan
10. Ben Roethlisberger
11. Eli Manning
12. Joe Flacco

Tier 3
13. Matt Stafford
14. Josh Freeman
15. Sam Bradford
16. Jay Cutler
17. Kevin Kolb
18. Kyle Orton
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick
20. Donovan McNabb
21. Mark Sanchez
22. Matt Cassell

Tier 4
23. Colt McCoy
24. Cam Newton

As you see, we've broken the quarterbacks into convenient tiers. As we mentioned above, if you see some of the top quarterbacks flying off the board early, make sure to get one of the top seven (Romo is a controversial pick for the top tier that some might not feel comfortable with, so in that case, grab one of the top six).

Fantasy Football players are just starting to truly realize the importance of a consistent, reliable quarterback. Get one early and don't worry about it for the rest of the year.

After that, Tier 2 is mostly dependable starters who we feel will maintain their current production with no dropoff. There is a little more potential in Tier 3, along with a few players who we do, in fact, think have a dropoff coming (Josh Freeman, namely).

Finally, our last tier is just two deep: McCoy and Newton. If you're drafting a quarterback this late into the talent pool, go for the boom or bust guys who could break out rather than the consistently mediocre options such as Matt Hasselbeck or David Garrard.

Now that you have your signal-caller picked out, we'll continue with our series of 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings to help you fill out the rest of your fictional squad. Next up: Running backs.

Stock Lemon's Advice on Betting the NFL Preseason:

Don't.

The Tiger Woods Major Tournament Betting Strategy

The last of the 2011 golf majors takes place this weekend, and for betters feeling nostalgic about Tiger's seemingly long-gone dominance in the golf world, here's a strategy to consider.

With a mediocre performance over the weekend (and the last two years), Tiger's odds are dwindling with every tournament. You'd be hard-pressed to find him at odds of 10/1 or better at a major until he wins another one, a far cry from the days when you could actually bet on him versus the field--and get better odds on the field!

So here's a strategy: Knowing that 10/1 is the worst of the odds you'll have to lay (he's double that at 20/1 at the PGA Championship this weekend), you could feasibly bet on Tiger at the next 10 majors (covering 2 1/2 years of golf), needing only to win in the last tournament of those 10 to break even. Which means, should he win next year's PGA, you would have unsuccessfully bet on four tournaments, say for $100 each, but in the fifth tournament, assuming at worst 10/1 odds, you would profit $1,000. Our math tells us that you made yourself a $600 profit, at which point you scrap the system.

Now, maybe our logic is flawed. Maybe Tiger will show promise at a tournament and get everybody jacked up about his game again, thus boosting the odds to unfavorable amounts (and given the public's betting affection for Tiger, this is not unlikely). Maybe injuries and mental fatigue have ruined the once immortal Tiger for good. But hey, that's gambling. There are no guarantees, just opportunities.

In the end, the risk may prove greater than the reward. But vise versa is possible, too, particularly if he keeps getting 20/1 odds.

Essentially, under this strategy you are betting on Tiger Woods, perhaps the greatest golfer of all-time, to win just one major in the next 2 1/2 years. Would you take that bet?

Stock Lemon's 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings Coming Soon

Thankfully, it's football season yet again, where all your fantasies become realities.

For those of you who have been fantasizing about our 2011 Fantasy Football Rankings, wipe that drool from your lip and check back soon for our position-by-position ranks of the best of the NFL.

And since there will likely be very few Raiders in our rankings, fantasize about the picture above for as long as you can.

Check back soon for our rankings!

Tiger Tempting Bridgestone Bettors

The big golf news of the week (year) is that Tiger Woods will finally return from his physical and mental injuries and take part in the Bridgestone Invitational which begins tomorrow.

This is an event that Tiger has won seven times, and other golfers have won just five, so yeah, a lot of people are betting on Tiger Woods in his first tourney back.

We like Tiger as much as the next obscure sports betting/stocks website, but let's hold on just a minute. Bookmakers are enticing betters with great odds on Tiger, especially at an event he has historically dominated like none other. But keep in mind, this is his first event back, and with a new caddy at that. Let's give him a tourney to work out the kinks. Our prediction is that he does just that--and then goes on to win the PGA next weekend. But we think this is just a tune-up to prepare for next week.

Keep in mind that Tiger's list of goals looks like this: 1) majors; 2) everything else. Obviously, he would like to win the tournament, but he has his eye on an even bigger prize next week. Though it is extremely tempting to bet Tiger at a tournament he has won nearly 60 percent of the time at such favorable odds (currently 12/1 on Bodog after opening upwards of 20/1!), this is the only Bridgestone tourney in history in which we advise taking the field.

Now don't get us wrong, despite what his arbitrary ranking might tell you, we still think Tiger is the best golfer in the world. We just don't think he will be this weekend.