Sunday, January 6, 2013

Free BCS Championship Game Pick: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

We're putting a nice little bow on our horrific Free NCAA Football Picks tomorrow with the BCS National Championship Game between Alabama and Notre Dame.

Thankfully, this is the last you'll see of our picks for some time--if not ever. And we're ending them with a Dame.

Notre Dame +10 over Alabama

Just too many points in what figures to be a low scoring game, and we're going to hope that the month layoff messes with Bama more than it does the Irish. Of course, Bama has been here before (the public's familiarity with them is the reason they are favored by so much in the first place), but this is a new season, and we don't think this Bama team is as strong as they were last year.

Now, we're not totally saying Notre Dame is all that great, but we think this magical season of theirs continues for one final Free NCAA Football Pick.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Road to the Super Bowl Begins: Free NFL Wild Card Picks Are In! (58% YTD)

After hitting 58% of our picks during the regular season, it's playoff time in the NFL, and the road to a perfect 11-0 record starts here. And with a card we don't particularly care for.

We're going with three dogs, one favorite, and--gulp--all road teams. A fact that we literally didn't realize until we wrote that previous sentence. Shit. But, apparently, that's where the value is this week.

If you remember last year's playoffs here at Stock Lemon Blog (fortunately, that's doubtful), we began the postseason an incredible 0-6. So here's hoping that doesn't happen again. 

Bengals +5 over the Texans

Vikings +9 1/2 over the Packers

Colts +7 over the Ravens

Seahawks -3 over the Redskins

Our quick and dirty reasoning: Bengals and Texans are going in opposite directions, definitely a live dog in Houston; We just can't seem to trust the Packers and the "Lambeau mystique" that has them 2-4 in their last six playoff home games, think they feel the pressure and choke--at least in terms of the spread; CHUCKSTRONG, Ravens win close; Seahags might find their way in the Super Bowl, the Redskins are Seahawks Lite but Seattle just is a little better.  

Good luck, but most of all this time of year, just enjoy the journey.

Friday, January 4, 2013

No Longer Perfect in 2013, Free NCAA Football Bowl Picks Trudge On

We can't dwell too much on our first loss of 2013, considering it was preceded immediately by seven wins and a push. And especially considering that it will certainly not be our last.

The next such opportunity is today in the Cotton Bowl, where Texas A&M is favored against Oklahoma. And we're siding with Johnny Football and Co.

Texas A&M -3 over Oklahoma 

Should be a helluva game, and we're going with motivation above all else in this one. Just think it means more to the Aggies, and expect them to play accordingly. Unfortunately, we aren't alone in that, as many squares who watched the Aggies beat Alabama and their QB win the Heisman are backing TAMU for the wrong reasons, driving the number in the wrong direction.

Still, like the Aggies in what might be our last Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick, excluding the National Championship.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47) Odds Prior to the NFL Playoffs Predict a 49ers/Broncos Matchup

We've been slacking, so the chances are you're already well aware of the updated 2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47) odds heading into the first weekend of the NFL Playoffs. In which case, you're well aware that you shouldn't bet on any of them.

Let's take a look at the updated Super Bowl odds heading into Wild Card Weekend.

Denver Broncos 11/4 
New England Patriots 4/1 
San Francisco 49ers 6/1 
Atlanta Falcons 7/1 
Green Bay Packers 8/1 
Seattle Seahawks 11/1 
Houston Texans 15/1 
Washington Redskins 18/1 
Baltimore Ravens 22/1 
Minnesota Vikings 40/1 
Cincinnati Bengals 45/1 
Indianapolis Colts 45/1

There isn't a lot of value to be found over at Bovada. On first glance, we think the best bet is to grab one of the three favorites (Denver, New England or San Francisco) and hope for the best. But really, at these prices it isn't worth it.

As you can see, Vegas predicts a Broncos/49ers Super Bowl, which would be a rematch of the 55-10 drubbing the Niners put on the Broncos  in Super Bowl XXIV (24)--a game that was played in New Orleans.

Last year, the odds at the beginning of the postseason had the Packers matching up with the Patriots. Green Bay choked away another playoff game at home, but the Patriots did their part in getting to the game, only to lose to the Giants and their 18/1 odds.

Of the longer odds this year, you could ride Chuckstrong and the Colts at 45/1, or go with Ray Lewis' retirement rallying the Ravens at 22/1, but again, considering what those teams have to do to get to the big game, those numbers don't look appealing.

We're going to tell you something we rarely will tell you as we ramp up our coverage of the upcoming Super Bowl: pass on this bet. You're better off going with the individual game moneylines on a lot of these dogs (Seattle at 11/1 would be enticing if we didn't think you'd make more betting strictly moneylines), and there are way too many awesome prop bets to be had during the actual Super Bowl to worry about tying up your money for the duration of the NFL Playoffs. 

Free NCAA Football Bowl Picks Are 7-0-1 in the Last Three Days; Fiesta Time

We don't know what's going on, but we appreciate the fact that our shitty Free NCAA Football Picks are being made to look slightly less shitty as a result of a late surge in the last three days.

We're still undefeated in the new year, which we will milk while we can (3-0-1), and are 7-0-1 in the last three days. Don't get too excited; our Free NCAA Football Picks are only 15-10-2 in the postseason, so we'll let you do the math on their performance prior to these last three strange days.

We should have seen this coming: false hope to dissuade us from giving up on college football. We simply don't want as much and aren't as invested in the college game as we used to be, and our picks have suffered as a result. We've substituted quantity over quality this year, and who would have thought, it hasn't worked.

Whether we continue to bet the college game beyond this season is still up in the air, so of course the gambling gods bring us a little win streak and short term gains now for the long term benefit of the bookies--should we be persuaded to continue throwing our money at the NFL's minor league.

Anyway, we have a Fiesta Bowl pick today, so let's get to it.

Kansas State +8 1/2 over Oregon

Like another dog today just before Chip Kelly bolts for the pros. And, hey, if we lose, at least we have an excuse not to bet on college football anymore.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Free NCAA Football Bowl Picks Are Hilariously 6-0-1 in the Last Two Days; Here's Another One

Our terrible Free NCAA Football Picks have shown signs of life for the first time all year--and that isn't limited to 2013.

After a 4-0 New Year's Eve, we went 2-0-1 on New Year's Day, deciding to abandon our stupid plan to bet on every bowl game. So, yes, we are still undefeated in 2013. STILL UNDEFEATED IN 2013!

We forgot how fun winning is; maybe we'll try to do it more often. We're hoping to keep the sweet results coming by mixing in some Sugar today (so much for our New Year's resolution to stop the lame puns).

Louisville +14 over Florida

Our still horrifying weekly Free NCAA Football Picks record breakdown is below:

Free NCAA Football Picks
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 0-4
Week 3: 4-4
Week 4: 0-0
Week 5: 0-2
Week 6: 2-4
Week 7: 5-8
Week 8: 4-4
Week 9: 3-4
Week 10: 5-5
Week 11: 3-2
Week 12: 1-4
Week 13: 5-6
Week 14: 4-3-1
Week 15: 0-1
Bowls: 14-10-2
Total: 54-64-3 (46%)

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Starting the New Year Off Right: With Free NCAA Football Pick Bowl Losses!

Just when we thought we were out, they pull us back in.

After a terrible start to the bowl season after a terrible college football season, the most terrible thing happened yesterday: our picks showed just enough promise to keep us going into the new year.

And now we're bowling again on New Year's Day. However, we're abandoning our promise to bet every bowl game and just going with three Big Ten squads to start off 2013.

Michigan +5 1/2 over South Carolina

Wisconsin +6 over Stanford

Northwestern -2 over Mississippi State

Happy New Year, and enjoy more of the same from our Free NCAA Football Picks, UNDEFEATED THIS YEAR BABY!

Monday, December 31, 2012

Free NFL Picks End The Regular Season At 58%

Faced with a tricky Week 17 card, we opted to play just one game on the NFL's Week 17 schedule. It was one game too many.

And so we end our 2012-13 Free NFL Picks regular season at 36-26-3, which is 58% for the year. Of concern, though, is that we have finished with three consecutive losings weeks. You might recall us going on a similar slide last season, so there is precedent here. 

Once again, for whatever reason, we feel obligated to bet every playoff game, and we'll do just that all the way to the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII (47), which is a longer, more google search friendly way of just saying Super Bowl (shameless, but we need all the traffic we can get here).

Heading into the postseason, here's where we stand:

Free NFL Picks
Week 1: 2-5
Week 2: 3-2
Week 3: 0-0
Week 4: 1-2
Week 5: 5-1
Week 6: 3-1
Week 7: 3-2
Week 8: 1-3
Week 9: 4-0
Week 10: 2-1
Week 11: 4-0
Week 12: 1-1-1
Week 13: 2-1-1
Week 14: 3-0-1
Week 15: 1-3
Week 16: 2-3
Week 17: 0-1
Total: 36-26-3 (58%)

New Year's Eve Free NCAA Football Bowl Pick Guesses

We told you we weren't going to update our record, but at this point we feel we probably should warn you. We have picked up right where we left off, going 8-10-1 in the bowl season thus far.

So before we get to our guesses for today--and it'd be dishonest at this point to call them anything else--here's an update on our absolutely disastrous Free NCAA Football Pick Season. 

Free NCAA Football Picks
Week 1: 4-3
Week 2: 0-4
Week 3: 4-4
Week 4: 0-0
Week 5: 0-2
Week 6: 2-4
Week 7: 5-8
Week 8: 4-4
Week 9: 3-4
Week 10: 5-5
Week 11: 3-2
Week 12: 1-4
Week 13: 5-6
Week 14: 4-3-1
Week 15: 0-1
Bowls: 8-10-1
Total: 48-64-2 (43%)

End of public service announcement. It's quite clear, we can't figure it out this year--and despite our stubborn attempts, it isn't going to happen miraculously in the bowl season. We're going to roll out our picks for Monday, and depending on how this goes, perhaps shutting it down for the 2012 season before any of this creeps into the new year.

So your last college football picks of the (calendar) year, and maybe, ever, from Stock Lemon Blog:

Clemson +6 over LSU

Vanderbilt -7 over N.C. State

Georgia Tech +7 1/2 over USC

Tulsa +2 over Iowa State

We'll see you in 2013... or not.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Only One Week 17 Free NFL Pick (59% YTD)

In the playoffs, we'll foolishly bet on every single game, with limited success, as always. In Week 17, we're only betting on one.

Packers -3 1/2 over the Vikings

Just a weird card all around this week that we never got a feel for, but like the Packers to take care of business in Minnesota, who somehow wound up in position for a playoff spot despite being terrible at football.

Enjoy your single pick Sunday. Next stop, playoffs.
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